Flore Gubert (PSE, DIAL), Esther Delesalle (UCLouvain) et Dimitri Defrance (CDF)

Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period

Résumé

This paper combines population census data and climate data to estimate the volume of migrations induced by the drought events that have hit Mali since the late 1980s. The results show that the droughts that have unevenly affected the regions of Mali have had the effect of increasing migration from rural to urban areas. This is true for both men and women, regardless of the age group considered. Between 1998 and 2009, droughts translate into an additional net outflow of 7,134 male and 6,281 female rural migrants per year. The effect of drought episodes, however, differs according to localities and rural households' capacity to adapt to climatic constraints: it fades in localities characterized by more diversified crops and in those located in the Sudano-Sahelian and Sudano-Guinean zones that receive more rainfall on average. Climate shocks also had an impact on international mobility: over the 2004-2009 period, around 2,000 additional departures per year can be attributed to the dry episodes that hit Mali during the 2000s. We forecast that, under different climate scenarios and population growth projection, internal and international mobility induced by droughts events will substantially grow in the next decades.

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