PhD defence: Mariz Abdou

Mariz Abdou
UCA, CERDI

Examiners

Patrick Plane, Research Director Emeritus CERDI, CNRS
Silvia Nenci, Professor, Université de Roma Tre
Giorgia Giovannetti, Professor, Université de Florence
Simone Bertoli, Professor, CERDI, UCA
Chahir Zaki, Professor, LÉO, Université d'Orléans
Andrew Berg, Deputy Director, International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This dissertation examines how exchange rate policy shapes countries’ participation in global value chains (GVCs) and their ability to upgrade within international production networks. It further investigates how integration into GVCs translates into broader development outcomes, including structural transformation and women’s economic empowerment. By combining evidence at the country, sector, and firm levels, the thesis provides new insights into the determinants, upgrading dynamics, and inclusive development implications of GVC participation.

Chapter 1 assesses the impact of exchange rate policy on countries’ backward and forward participation in GVCs, with a particular focus on two moderating factors: institutional quality and digitalization. The analysis relies on the EORA dataset covering 143 countries over the period 1995–2018. The results show that real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation has a positive impact on both forms of GVC participation. Consistent with recent contributions in the literature, undervaluation appears to act as a compensatory mechanism for countries with weak institutions. Moreover, the positive effect of undervaluation becomes more pronounced as the level of digitalization in the economy increases. These findings remain robust to a battery of robustness checks.

Chapter 2 examines the impact of bilateral RER depreciation on forward and backward GVC linkages and its implications for upgrading. The analysis uses sector- level Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) data for Egypt over the period 1995–2022. Egypt provides a relevant case, given the active use of the RER as a policy instrument alongside ongoing efforts to expand GVC participation and diversify exports. The results show that RER depreciation increases GVC integration through both linkages, with stronger forward gains observed in primary sectors and stronger backward gains in high-technology sectors. However, RER depreciation alone does not generate upgrading. When learning effects from foreign knowledge embedded in imported inputs are captured through a constructed knowledge-spillover index, RER depreciation is associated with significant upgrading. These effects are stronger in South–North value-added trade flows and remain robust to alternative specifications.

Chapter 3 examines the impact of GVC integration on women’s participation in international trade across three dimensions: female ownership, female top management, and female employment. The analysis uses firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) conducted over the period 2006–2025. The results indicate that the baseline definition of GVC integration increases the likelihood of female ownership, while both the least restrictive and the most restrictive definitions significantly enhance female employment. In contrast, GVC participation is associated with a lower probability of women holding top managerial positions. These results remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity using instrumental variable estimation and propensity score matching. Sectoral heterogeneity analysis reveals that services, unskilled labor-intensive sectors, and low-technology industries constitute the primary sources of female employment. Moreover, GVC integration promotes female ownership and managerial opportunities in manufacturing and medium-high-technology sectors relative to non- GVC firms. The results further show that gender-related provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs) moderate the impact of GVC integration, particularly with respect to female employment. Finally, mechanism analysis suggests that on-the-job training, technological upgrading, and improved access to finance represent key channels through which GVC participation enhances women’s economic outcomes.

Keywords

Exchange rate policy, global value chains, firm-level,sectoral analysis, trade and gender, upgrading.

https://theses.fr/s363564