PhD Defence: Idrissa Aladji Aya

Idrissa Aladji Aya
CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne

Examiners

Vianney Dequiedt, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne.
Pierre-Guillaume Méon, Professor, Université Libre de Bruxelles.
Mathieu Couttenier, Professor, École normale supérieure de Lyon.
Michael Goujon, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne.
Emmanuelle Lavallée, Associate Professor, Université Paris-Dauphine.
Takady Mamadou Konate, Doctor in Economics, World Bank.
Hervé Lohoues, Doctor in Economics, African Development Bank.
Samuel Guérineau, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne.

Abstract

This doctoral research examines how different dimensions of fragility—such as conflicts, political instability, and economic vulnerability—affect macroeconomic performance. By combining advanced econometric methods with policy-oriented analysis, my work contributes to a deeper understanding of how fragility undermines development.

Chapter 1 examines the relationship between military expenditure and the intensity of the armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Given the deterrent effect of such expenditures, our basic assumption is that increasing military spending at the margin should reduce the intensity of armed conflict. We use a dynamic probit model, and the results show that military spending reduces the intensity of conflict. It significantly reduces low-intensity conflicts more than high-intensity conflicts. Additionally, the effectiveness of military spending depends on its level and the quality of institutions. Finally, the analysis of transmission channels shows that military spending affects conflict intensity mainly through the channel of military capabilities.

Chapter 2 evaluates how political instability, specifically coups d’état, affects macroeconomic performance. Using a dataset of 192 countries from 1970 to 2023 and an entropy balancing model, we find that coups d’état reduce GDP growth by around 2.3 percentage points in the same year, with a persistent impact over time. There is also tentative evidence to suggest that successful coups have larger economic impacts than unsuccessful coups, and that the effects are larger for low-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. Coups are found to affect private consumption and investment, but there is little evidence of an impact on monetary or fiscal indicators. Finally, economic sanctions imposed after coups are found to be an important reason for lower growth.

Chapter 3 examines how African countries recover economically after internal conflicts, focusing on endogeneity issues related to reverse causality. We use the entropy balancing method and find evidence of an economic catch-up effect in the post-conflict period. The analysis of transmission channels reveals that increased investment, consumption, and trade are the primary drivers of post-conflict economic recovery. The cumulative impact of growth is estimated at 2 percentage points in the first year, increasing only slightly to 2.5 percentage points by the fifth year. This modest 0.5 percentage point increase over five years indicates that post-conflict growth remains volatile and unsustainable, reflecting the persistent effects of conflict.

Keywords

Fragility, Armed Conflict, Coup d’état, Resilience, Public spending, Developing countries. 

https://theses.fr/s362871