Published on October 13, 2025 – Updated on October 13, 2025
Location
Pôle Tertiaire - Site La Rotonde - 26 avenue Léon Blum - 63000 Clermont-Ferrand
Room 212

Research seminar. The long-term impact of natural disasters on human capital: Evidence from the 2010 floods in Pakistan.

Rida Ali Khan
Université Clermont Auvergne

Abstract

This paper utilizes the 2010 Pakistan flood as a natural experiment to examine the long-term impact of natural disasters on human capital development. The primary outcomes include child disabilities, such as cognitive and functional disabilities, while the secondary outcomes focus on educational attainment. The flood, which began in late July 2010, was the most devastating in Pakistan’s history, affecting over 20 million people, causing between 1,800 and 2,000 fatalities, destroying or damaging approximately 1.7 million homes, and resulting in an estimated economic loss of US$43 billion. Using nationally representative microdata from 2019 and 2020, I find that children exposed to the flood in utero experienced negative health and cognitive development outcomes compared to unexposed cohorts. I also find that school-aged children at the time of the flood experienced a significant decrease in years of education and rates of secondary school completion. The effect is pronounced among boys in terms of disabilities, while girls experienced higher educational losses. Children in rural areas were highly affected in terms of disabilities and education compared to their urban counterparts. The impact is also severe among children from low-income households and those with less-educated parents, particularly for health outcomes. The findings are robust and consistent across different specifications, robustness checks, and placebo tests.