PhD Defense: Henri Joël Sourgou

Henri Joël Sourgou
Research Engineer and Data Manager
CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne

iSDG model For Burkina Faso From National Food Security to local food community

Examiners

Arnaud Diemer, Université Clermont Auvergne, PhD supervisor
Birgit Kopainsky, University of Bergen, Examiner
Matteo Pedercini, Millennium Institute, Examiner
Pam Zahonogo, Université Thomas Sankara, Examiner
Yassia Kindo, Ministère de l'Agriculture du Burkina, Guest

Abstract

In the context of a profound transformation of the world, marked by the crossing of planetary boundaries and the scarcity of financial resources, achieving the United Nations Agenda 2030 requires massive investments in most sectors for developing countries. In particular, the desire for a sustainable food sector capable of contributing to the fight against climate change, unemployment, poverty, hunger, etc. is a necessity for these countries. In this quest for sustainable systems, the implementation of effective and synergistic public policies is now of paramount importance for governments that have to meet the expectations of their populations. This thesis examines the models used by certain international institutions to assess the impact of public policies in developing countries. We then propose a dynamic model to help these countries build sustainable food systems. Chapter 1 introduces the basics of systems dynamics, recalling the work of Forrester and Meadows with the Industrial Dynamics and Limits to Growth reports of the 1960s and 1970s. It also describes the Millennium Institute's iSDG model, which uses system dynamics. The results show that the iSDG model is an effective tool for assessing the impact of public policies in multiple scenarios on achieving the SDGs, estimating the budget for each scenario, and guiding policymakers towards concrete, achievable targets. Chapter 2 presents a benchmarking analysis of the Millennium Institute's iSDG model, which is based on system dynamics, with certain dynamic models, such as the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the World Bank's long-term growth model, and the AFD's stock-flow consistent prototype growth model. The aim is to analyse the structure of each model in terms of the SDG indicators consideration, as well as the place of GDP in each model. The study shows that the DSGE, LTGM and SFCP-GM are predictive models that try to identify the transmission channels of economic shocks. However, they do not take into account interactions between variables, except the AFD's SFCP-GM, which is based on an accounting balance sheet of economic agents' assets. Secondly, unlike the iSDG model, these three models do not take into account the sustainability of economic systems. Chapter 3 takes a prospective approach to the analysis of the SDGs, translating them into planetary limits using the iSDG model through strong and weak interactions of their indicators. The scarcity of financial and natural resources, and the environmental scourges facing the planet today, limit the possibility or not of achieving these goals by 2030. This illustration teaches us that humanity must reduce its environmental footprint and that any public policy aimed at improving well-being must take into account the limits imposed on humanity by nature. Hence the importance of strategic planning for sustainable development. Chapter 4 presents the modeling of a food system using Burkina Faso as an example. The study shows that this system interacts with several others in the governance, economic, social and environmental spheres, whether at local, national or regional level. The simulation results for Burkina Faso show that the country's food and nutrition situation is deteriorating and that urgent public policies are needed to reverse the trend. These include tackling insecurity, developing road and irrigation infrastructure, training farmers and increasing women's participation in the labour market.

Keywords

iSDG, Systems Thinking, Systems Dynamics, T21, Sustainable Development Goals assessment tools, GDP, Public Policy modeling in developing countries, Causal Loop Diagram, Stock and Flow Diagram, Burkina Faso, Food Security, Sustainability.