PhD Defense: Beguerang Topeur

Three essays on the socio-economic impact of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

Jury

• Brun Jean-François, Associate Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne
• Combes Motel Pascale, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne
• Bourgain Arnaud, Associate Professor, Université du Luxembourg
• Semedo Gervasio, Associate Professor, Université de Tours 
• Mourji Fouzi, Professeur, Université Hassan II
• Phelinas Pascale, Research Director, IRD
• Thakoor Jeevendranath Vimal, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Climate change leads to various climatic manifestations (extreme temperatures, random precipitation, droughts, floods, tornadoes, etc.) that are damaging. The thesis focuses on its socio-economic consequences in sub-Saharan Africa. Is there a disparity across the region's major geographic areas ? How does the importance of indoor climate zones to economies cushion or make countries vulnerable to the socio-economic consequences of climate change? These questions are at the heart of this thesis work, which includes three essays. It focuses in particular on real GDP per capita growth and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, the climate determinants of inflation in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of climate change on food security in the Sahel through the case of Chad. The first essay analyzes the effects of climate change on real GDP per capita growth. It covers 47 countries over the period from 1980 to 2017. At the regional level, temperature acts positively on per capita growth through its averages (with a threshold effect) and negatively through its variability. Rainfall acts negatively by its variance. There is, however, a clear disparity when considering geographical areas. It is therefore important that policies to adapt to and combat climate change or promote growth take geographical specificities into account both in their design and implementation. The second essay focuses on the climate determinants of inflation in sub-Saharan Africa. It also provides a regional and geographical view of the relationship between climate and inflation in sub-Saharan Africa. Its purpose is to guide decisions in the manner of inflation targeting. It is clear that in sub-Saharan Africa, rainfall and temperature have a statistically significant effect on inflation, mainly through their trend trends. Rainfall positively affects inflation through the income effect it provides to agricultural households, which represent 60% of the total population. Temperature positively affects inflation through its negative impact on production, i.e. through a supply effect. However, there is a clear disparity across geographical areas. These results show that inflation-targeting policies, which are generally monetary or fiscal, should now take into account climatic hazards. They should also be sensitive to adverse weather conditions that create supply shocks. However, policymakers should pay attention to the favorable rainfall trend that can be a source of inflation in the context of sub-Saharan Africa given the income it provides to the majority agricultural population. The latest essay, which uses survey data from the World Food Program and the National Meteorological Agency, highlights the effect of climatic factors on food security. It shows that climate variables, including rainfall, drought and floods, have a clear influence on food security. A higher level of precipitation is associated with a higher food security status. Drought, on the other hand, is associated with higher food insecurity. However, floods have effects that evolve in sawtooth. Living in an unfavorable climatic zone also exposes you to food insecurity. In a Chadian context, public policies to develop the agricultural sector or to assist the vulnerable population should give priority to areas receiving less than 600mm of rainfall.

Keywords 

Climate change, growth by habitat, inflation, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sahel, Chad, temperature, rainfall, geographical areas, climatic zones.