PhD Defence: Chafia Dali Bessalem

Chafia Bessalem
Université Clermont Auvergne, CERDI

Examiners

• Arnaud Diemer, Associate Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne, Supervisor.
• Pascale Combes-Motel, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne. 
• Sylvie Ferrari, Professor, Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
• Alain Grandjean, President, The other economy.
• Emmanuel Raufflet, Professor, Département de management, HEC Montréal.

Abstract

The global energy system is characterized by multiple tensions related to security of supply, geopolitical conflicts, and climate challenges. Committed to the energy transition, various countries have developed roadmaps whose main objective is carbon neutrality. While reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the common thread running through prospective scenarios, it is not addressed in the same way in the action plans of governments and private actors, namely oil and gas companies, which are responsible for more than half of global GHG emissions. The thesis questions the future of the energy transition and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. It aims to highlight the complexities of the global energy system by drawing on work related to scenarios, foresight, and systemic modeling embodied by system dynamics. Our research is structured around three areas of work. The first area offers an interpretation of the literature on scenarios. Four approaches (scenario planning, foresight, three horizons, narrative shared socioeconomic pathways) are presented and analyzed, specifying possible future pathways, potential trend disruptions, and the challenges of a paradigm shift. The second axis specifies the place of prospective scenarios in national policies and roadmaps. Using the French case as an example, we highlighted the scenarios proposed by four national institutions (ADEME, RTE, Négawatt, and The Shift Project), drawing on the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) proposed by system dynamics. The results of this modeling method contrast with the so-called sectoral approaches (energy, housing, mobility, etc.) widely used in the reports of these institutions. Finally, in a third and final axis, we analyzed the national roadmaps of four countries (Algeria, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom) in relation to the scenarios of six oil and gas companies (BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Sonatrach, and Total Energies). This approach, which is primarily systemic and futures-oriented, tends to emphasize that carbon neutrality is largely dependent on the strategic choices made by oil and gas companies. While their investments in renewable energies are moderate, they are part of a portfolio management strategy in which the energy mix (and therefore investments in fossil fuels) and shareholder value are still very much present.

Keywords