Katsuo Kogure (Université d'Aizu)

Katsuo Kogure
University of Aizu

Le CERDI est heureux d'accueillir Katsuo Kogure, Professeur à l'Université d'Aizu, pour un séjour de recherche du 6 au 22 septembre 2026. Ce séjour s'inscrit dans le cadre du programme « Exploration France » proposé par l'ambassade du Japon.

Katsuo Kogure est un économiste du développement qui focalise son travail de recherche sur les répercussions des guerres et des conflits sur les sociétés et les individus. Il collabore actuellement avec Masahiro Kubo, chercheur postdoctorant, sur les effets à long terme des interventions militaires étrangères pendant la guerre du Vietnam.  

Abstract 

We provide a framework for causal inference when treatments are defined by historical events and outcomes are observed among contemporary individuals. A fundamental challenge in this setting is that historical events can shape not only subsequent outcomes but also the formation of the populations in which those outcomes are ultimately observed. Because contemporary individuals generally do not exist at the time of treatment, the composition of the observed populations can itself depend on history. We make this population formation explicit by defining population membership for potential units in a superpopulation and distinguishing realized contemporary populations from the counterfactual populations that would arise under alternative historical treatment assignments. This formulation clarifies the target population and causal estimand in persistence studies, without requiring researchers to identify counterfactual population formation in every application. The conventional potential outcomes framework is recovered as a special case when the contemporary target population is invariant across treatment states. Our superpopulation-based framework provides a foundation for formulating, identifying, and interpreting the long-run causal effects of historical events on contemporary outcomes.