Lisa Capretti (Tor Vergata)

Lisa Capretti
Tor Vergata

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of temporary migration and return decisions among immigrants in Italy, drawing on a novel administrative dataset covering 3.7 million foreign-born individuals between 2011 and 2022. By reconstructing individual migration histories, we estimate migration duration using parametric survival models, quantile regressions for interval-censored data, competing risk models, and a split cure model that separates the determinants of permanent settlement from those shaping the timing of exit, explicitly accounting for the large share of migrants who remain in Italy. Our results show that out-migration is concentrated in the first two years after arrival, while the majority of migrants remain in Italy over the 12-year observation window. Individual characteristics such as age and gender matter, but local conditions within Italy strongly shape migration duration. Higher local incomes are associated with longer stays, while higher rental prices accelerate departures. Regional disparities also matter independently of economic variables: migrants in the South and Islands remain significantly longer than those in the North. These findings highlight how heterogeneity within host countries—rather than national averages alone – shapes migration trajectories, offering novel insights into the geography of return migration and the importance of local labor markets and living conditions.  

Read the paper

Register