Romain Veyrune (IMF)

Romain Veyrune
Division Chief, IMF

Abstract

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Article IV (AIV) reports are annual qualitative assessments of the economic outlook for nearly 190 member countries, including many low-income and data-scarce nations. These reports contain valuable forward-looking insights but are traditionally underutilized in quantitative modeling. This document explores innovative approaches to converting the rich textual content of AIV reports into quantitative economic prospect scores using advanced AI techniques, particularly large language models (LLMs). The goal is to enhance sovereign risk assessment, improve cross-country comparability, and provide valuable signals where conventional data is limited or unreliable.