PhD defence: Mouhamed Zerbo

Three essays on the impact of the log export ban policy in developing countries    

Mouhamed Zerbo
Cerdi, Université Clermont Auvergne

Jury

Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, Associate Professor, Université de Bordeaux
Philippe Delacote, Research Director, INRAE
Michaël Goujon, Professor, Université Clermont Auvergne
Florian Léon, Research Officer, FERDI, Research Fellow at the CERDI
Bertrand Laporte, Associate Professor, Directeur de thèse, Université Clermont Auvergne
Sébastien Marchand, Associate Professor, Directeur de thèse, Université Clermont Auvergne

Abstract

The log export ban (LEB) reform is a policy which prohibits the export of unprocessed timber. This reform was adopted to promote industrialisation, exports and employment in the processed wood sector, as well as to combat deforestation and protect endangered species. The reform has gained significant support over the two last decades in several developing countries. However, the removal of the reform by some countries has questioned its effectiveness. As with any policy, it is difficult to achieve several objectives through the adoption of a single policy according to Tinbergen's rule.

The aim of this thesis is to assess the impact of this reform on some of the objectives commonly advanced at the time of its implementation: (1) the impact on the industrialisation of the timber sector; (2) the impact on employment in timber processing companies; (3) the impact on deforestation.

Chapter 1 looks at the impact of the reform on the production and export of sawnwood and veneer in 86 developing countries between 1990 and 2019. The results show that countries that have adopted the reform have experienced an increase in processed wood production compared with non-adopters. This effect is very significant in the case of sawnwood, but more mitigated for veneer. On the export side, the increase is greater for sawnwood, while the policy has no effect on veneer exports.

Chapter 2 analyses the causal effect of the reform on employment in the wood-processing industry using a sample of 1,739 firms located in 74 developing countries over the period 2006-2018. The results suggest that firms located in countries having adopted the reform recorded an increase in employment in the processed wood sector of around 25% compared to firms in non-adopting countries. This effect is heterogeneous according to job type. The reform has a positive impact on production jobs, permanent employment, and unskilled jobs. On the other hand, there is no effect on non-production jobs, temporary jobs and skilled jobs.

Chapter 3 estimates the impact of the reform on deforestation in 100 developing countries from 2000 to 2019. Estimates show that countries having implemented the reform have experienced an increase in deforestation. This effect of the reform is persistent over time. Another important conclusion of this chapter is that agricultural occupation and the wood-processing industry are major channels through which the reform affects deforestation. 

Keywords

 Log export ban; forestry sector; industrialization; international trade; processed wood; employment; deforestation; impact analysis; developing countries. 

theses.fr/en/s363671