PhD defence: Fawzy Banao

Fawzi Banao
CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne
DULBEA, Université Libre de Bruxelles

Examiners

Bertrand Laporte, Université Clermont Auvergne
Pierre-Guillaume Meon, Université Libre De Bruxelles
Philip Verwimp, Université Libre De Bruxelles
Michaël Goujon, Université Clermont Auvergne
Marin Ferry, Universite Gustave Eiffel
Vincent Geronimi, Université Versailles St-Quentin-En-Yvelines

Abstract

In a rapidly changing world, financing African economies remains a major challenge. The issue of resource mobilization is particularly alarming for countries in conflict. During periods of conflict, the ability to mobilize resources is crucial for the survival of the state. Therefore, the aims of this thesis are to analyze the effect of conflicts on resource mobilization in Africa, through three chapters.

Chapter 2 examines the link between migrant remittances, political stability, and domestic tax revenues (both direct and indirect) from 2000 to 2019. The dependent variable represents direct and indirect tax revenues, while the explanatory variable is the interaction between political stability and migrant remittances, measured as a percentage of GDP per capita. Using an instrumental variables strategy, the results show that stable countries more effectively capture domestic revenues from migrant remittances.

Chapter 3 explores the effect of terrorism in neighboring countries on gold customs fraud in Africa from 2000 to 2019, using ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators. The dependent variable is measured by gold customs fraud, while the variable of interest is neighboring country terrorism. The results indicate that a 1% increase in deaths related to terrorism in neighboring countries corresponds to a 3.65% increase in gold customs fraud. These results suggest that the rise in terrorist incidents in neighboring countries destabilizes border security and reduces customs performance.

Chapter 4 analyzes the impact of mineral price variations on armed conflicts in Africa at the local level from 1997 to 2019. The explanatory variable is the fluctuation in world prices of 14 minerals, while the dependent variable represents armed conflicts (battles, violence against civilians, explosions and remote violence, protests, and riots). Using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, the study reveals a positive relationship between armed conflicts and increasing mineral prices at the local level. Specifically, a doubling of mineral prices is associated with a 7.5% to 3.8% increase in local conflicts. However, this link is notably attenuated when cells with discovered but unexploited mines are used as a control group, thus reducing the impact of mineral prices on conflicts by 20% to 40%.

Keywords

Domestic Tax Revenues, Migrant Remittances, Political Stability, Customs Fraud, Terrorism, Neighborhood Effect, Mirror Analysis, Active Mines.