Jean-François Maystadt (UCLouvain)

Jean-François Maystadt
UCLouvain

Coauthors: Anna Maria Mayda and Cansu Oymak)

Abstract

The political impact of refugees is largely unknown in low-income countries, although these destinations host the majority of forcibly displaced people, and more specifically refugees. We exploit yearly variations in the number of refugees in refugee camps and election data at the subnational level in 16 African countries between 2000 and 2016. The estimates show that the arrival of refugees increases local support to the national incumbent and reduces political competition, but only when hosting countries implement more inclusive policies towards refugees. We find consistent results using Afrobarometer individual-level data on satisfaction with the government and with provision of local public goods (education, health care and infrastructure) as well as on opinions about immigrants. The impact of refugees on these attitudes, as well as on economic activities, becomes significantly less negative or turns positive, when refugee inclusive policies are in place.