Etienne Bacher (LISER)

Populist leaders and international migration

Etienne Bacher
Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

Abstract

Immigration is often considered as an important cause of populism, but the reverse causality between immigration and populism has received much less attention. In this paper, I use data on populist leaders and bilateral migration flows since 1960 to explore the effect of populism on immigration. Using the generalized synthetic control, I find that having a populist leader significantly decreases the growth rate of immigration, in particular for low-skilled immigration. However, there is no clear effect on emigration growth rates. I use rich datasets on migration policies and migration intentions to explore potential mechanisms. I find that this result is mostly driven by more restrictive migration policies in countries that have a right-wing populist leader. On the other hand, having a populist leader doesn’t affect a country’s attractiveness from the point of view of potential migrants.

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