Published on December 5, 2025–Updated on December 5, 2025
Webinaire Junior sur l'économie des migrations. Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration.
Shanta Kadam
University of Birmingham
Coauthor: Apurav Bhatiya
Abstract
This paper examines how highly visible irregular migration influences immigration attitudes. Using high-frequency data on small boat crossings from 2018 to 2024 linked to British Election Study panel data, we exploit variation in survey timing to identify short-term effects. Recent small boat arrivals reduce support for immigration, including via legal routes, especially among right-leaning media consumers. Left-leaning media can offset these effects, but only among respondents with low baseline concern. Perceived increases in immigration reinforce these patterns, consistent with confirmation bias. Small but salient events can disproportionately shape public sentiment through media framing and prior beliefs, helping explain recent policy tightening even toward regular migration.
