Reem Zaiour (University of California, Davis)

Violence in Mexico, Return Intentions, and the Integration of Mexican Migrants in the US

Reem Zaiour 
University of California, Davis

Résumé 

This paper studies how violence caused by the war on drugs in Mexico affects the social and economic integration of Mexican migrants in the United States. I combine detailed administrative data on Mexican migrants' municipal origins with US Census data on their naturalization, inter-marriage, and economic behavior. To instrument for violence in Mexican municipios, I use the pre-war geographic distribution of drug trade organizations within Mexico and cocaine supply shocks originating in Colombia. Focusing on migrants who arrived in the US before the war on drugs, I find that violence significantly increases their propensity to naturalize and marry US citizens, particularly naturalized Mexicans. The marriage effects are more pronounced in areas where migratory networks are concentrated and are larger for recent migrants. Overall, these results reflect a decrease in migrants' return intentions. Analysis using the Mexican Census suggests a reduction in return migration flows to municipios with heightened violence, supporting this mechanism. I find no evidence of a significant change in labor market behavior or human capital accumulation, which may indicate productivity and psychological responses acting in opposite directions. 

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